MORE TEXT ANALYSIS & DESK RESEARCH
Methodologically, I agree with the increasing use and development of text analysis tools operated by well trained specialists to intelligently surf and sift the vastness and produce increasingly insightful qual and quant reports… I can’t see as much value in software only solutions or text analysis done by amateurs however so I think this will and should remain the preserve of specialists.
DATA DENSE (AND PRETTY) FLASH SURVEYS
I also think more visually pleasing flash applications will become easier and quicker to programme. The value of these (in my view) is not that they look pretty but that they allow much more dense data collection. For example rating 10 brands on 5 attributes can be done in a single screen whereas it would take 10 (increasingly tedious) screens in a traditional HTML survey. We do need to start using respondent time more efficiently so this will become important.
PANEL HONESTY
There will be more pressure to deliver transparent sample quality but frankly all panel providers say they are good and clients are often seduced by ridiculously low CPIs..which make them think they can just over recruit and throw away an extra 10% of dodgy interviews.
RESPECT FOR RESPONDENTS
Whilst there will be greater focus on sample quality my experience remains that the vast majority of respondents complete reasonably designed surveys of a reasonable length honestly. Despite all this market research is one of only two industries where the term “professional” seems to be a negative (the other being the “oldest profession”). Some of the comments about respondents in generally are pretty rude sometimes. Perhaps there will be a trend to respect respondents a bit more in 2009. They are a precious resource and panels may decide that burning through them with low incidence, painfully designed, 25 minute surveys is not entirely sensible. The main problem is big panels stop caring because it is difficult to control how your respondents are treated if you sell sample and need to hit quarterly targets for the stock market.
SHORTER SURVEYS
Survey length will continue to drop as attention spans constrict and as non traditional sample sources come online and refuse to subject their communities to lengthy surveys. Whilst I am strongly in favour of shorter surveys I do not apply the same yardstick to my own prediction posts as you can see. Sorry.
ONLINE QUAL
I think online qual applications are getting pretty good now. I think they will increasingly eat into offline groups, which had held there own pretty well up to now.
$$$ & £££
Economically, I think CATI will be more hurt than online. It’s just too slow, too pricey and increasingly falling behind in functionality.
Financially, the main thing we’re noticing is reduced velocity…we grew 60% in 2008 and in 2007 and 2009 feels similar but whilst we’re getting the same sort or requests, more or less at the same budgets and more or less in the same volume, getting decisions from clients is taking quite a bit longer..stuff is dragging…caution reigns.